11 Robin Rd #1

Lincoln, NH 03251

$299,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,084/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,378
• Net cashflow: $10,457/mo
• Annual: $125,485/yr
• Cap rate: 48.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 149.89%
• DSCR: 7.67
• 1% rule: 5.38%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($125k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $299k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lin-Wood Public School (Elem) (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #56 of 263 statewide, top 22%, 112 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln-Woodstock School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $299k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 48.3% vs local median 5.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.