11 Robin Rd #1 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1986 $385/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mansion Hill Condominiums, one of Lincoln’s most desirable mountain communities. This well-appointed condominium offers comfortable single-level living with an open-concept design, abundant natural light, and a private deck perfect for enjoying the sights and sounds of the White Mountains. Whether you're seeking a year-round residence, vacation getaway, or investment property, this location delivers convenience and recreation in every season. Residents of Mansion Hill enjoy access to community amenities including an outdoor pool and tennis courts, while being just minutes from the slopes of Loon Mountain Resort and Cannon Mountain. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate easy a

Key facts

• Private deck
• Outdoor pool
• Community amenities

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Mansion Hill development; Road access via association/private paved dead-end road
• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (monthly HOA fee); Monthly fee includes cable, landscaping, plowing, recreation, trash, internet, condo association/master insurance; One-time buy-in fee; Association amenities include building maintenance, clubhouse, pool (in-ground), tennis court, pickleball, common acreage, and trash removal

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Community sewer; 200 amp electrical service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet at site and cable internet; Cable service (Spectrum); Phone service (Consolidated)
• Home design: Garden-style end unit; Built in 1986; Unit number 1
• Construction: Clapboard and wood siding exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Survey status unknown
• Exterior features: Condo development setting; Landscaped grounds; Sloping lot; Wooded surroundings; Near walking paths; Near skiing; Near snowmobile trails

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust hood; Refrigerator; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom suite (level 1); Additional bedroom (level 1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Pellet stove; Baseboard heat; Electric heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; 2 full bathrooms; End unit garden-style condominium
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($125k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.3% vs local median 5.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lin-Wood Public School (Elem) (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #56 of 263 statewide, top 22%, 112 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln-Woodstock School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $299k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $294,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 149.89%
• DSCR: 7.67
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $689,859
• Equity at exit: $121,108

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.38×
• Total profit: $1,539,084
• Equity at exit: $176,870

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,378
• Net cashflow: $10,457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,847

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,626	-5% $10,542	+0% $10,457	+5% $10,372	+10% $10,288
Rent	-10% $9,186	-5% $9,822	+0% $10,457	+5% $11,092	+10% $11,728
Rate	-1.0pp $10,608	-0.5pp $10,533	base $10,457	+0.5pp $10,380	+1.0pp $10,301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Cooper Memorial Dr #203 Lincoln, NH	1.0	2.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	44d	1	0.73mi
51 Pollard Rd Unit 4 Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	44d	1	0.89mi
51 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$15,000	$15.00	44d	1	0.89mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $299,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,062 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,290 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,228/yr (+$186/mo · 108.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $193,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,062
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,441
• − Management: −$15,441
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $128,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30,841
• After-tax cash flow: $94,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+106.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $299,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,062 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.