808 Crest View Trl

Byron, IL 61010

$199,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $120/mo
• Annual: $1,441/yr
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#100 in IL, #1,602 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Byron CUSD 226 (town): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #68 of 620 in IL (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mary Morgan Elem Sch (math 56% / reading 45%, grade D+, #172 of 2,056 statewide, top 8%, 659 students, 0% FRL); Byron Middle School (math 38% / reading 57%, grade C-, #69 of 665 statewide, top 11%, 350 students, 0% FRL); Byron High School 9-12 (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 457 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 17% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.