12121 Arbor Lake Rd

New Fairview, TX 76078

$300,000C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,360 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,627/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-40/mo
• Annual: $-478/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-478/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.