12121 Arbor Lake Rd · New Fairview, TX 76078

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2006 6,316 sqft lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $312k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Positioned on a large lot in a growing Rhome community, this move-in-ready home delivers the updates buyers want without the wait. Inside, you’ll find brand new carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, and a complete interior repaint that creates a clean, modern feel from the moment you walk in. The layout offers functional living with all bedrooms upstairs, keeping the main level open and ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A recently replaced water heater adds additional peace of mind. Residents enjoy access to a community pool, while the location offers convenient proximity to the Alliance Corridor with easy commuting, shopping, and dining options nearby. Priced aggressively to attract strong interest—an excellent opportunity in a high-growth area.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Large lot
• 6,316 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• RECENTLY REPLACED WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-478/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,732 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,387
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -3.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11931 Arbor Lake Rd	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,322 (-2%)	4mo	$279,900	$121	86
12020 Shine Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,543 (+8%)	0mo	$300,000	$118	80
12409 Arbor Lake Rd	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,390 (+1%)	12mo	$340,000	$142	76
12638 Carpenter Ln Unit 1a	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,264 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$123	71
12433 Worthington Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,558 (+8%)	12mo	$325,000	$127	70
12350 Orloff Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,558 (+8%)	12mo	$349,995	$137	69
12101 Shine Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,264 (-4%)	23mo	$325,000	$144	66
12613 Azure Heights Pl	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,226 (-6%)	12mo	$325,000	$146	61
12329 Arbor Lake Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,204 (-7%)	19mo	$315,000	$143	58
11822 Bone Spring Dr	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+4%)	15mo	$477,000	$195	49
11916 Forest Lawn Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,022 (-14%)	17mo	$329,999	$163	40
12805 Carpenter Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-15%)	24mo	$299,900	$149	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $160,914
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $475,994
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,627 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,431/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,678

Max offer price $292,958

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12417 Worthington Ln Rhome, TX	5.0	3.5	2911	$3,000	$1.03	43d	1	0.07mi
12221 Big Rock Dr Rhome, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$2,395	$0.94	24d	1	0.09mi
16000 Isles Dr , TX	4.0	3.0	2673	$2,500	$0.94	24d	1	0.87mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	12d	1	0.88mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	43d	1	0.97mi
16721 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	5.0	3.0	2770	$2,800	$1.01	43d	1	0.99mi
1017 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,250	$1.30	2d	1	0.99mi
1049 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,195	$1.28	18d	1	1.03mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	2d	1	1.04mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	43d	1	1.04mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	12d	1	1.20mi
16029 Pemberly Way Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,095	$1.22	12d	1	1.25mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	43d	1	1.29mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	11d	1	1.29mi
820 Forestdale Ct Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2766	$2,700	$0.98	43d	1	1.32mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $314,999 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Positioned on a large lot in a growing Rhome community, this move-in-ready home delivers the updates buyers want without the wait. Inside, you’ll find brand new carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, and a complete interior repaint that creates a clean, modern feel from the moment you walk in. The layout offers functional living with all bedrooms upstairs, keeping the main level open and ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A recently replaced water heater adds additional peace of mind. Residents enjoy access to a community pool, while the location offers convenient proximity to the Alliance Corridor with easy commuting, shopping, and dining options nearby. Priced aggressively to attract strong interest—an excellent opportunity in a high-growth area.

15. 2026-04-04
    price $315,000 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Positioned on a large lot in a growing Rhome community, this move-in-ready home delivers the updates buyers want without the wait. Inside, you’ll find brand new carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, and a complete interior repaint that creates a clean, modern feel from the moment you walk in. The layout offers functional living with all bedrooms upstairs, keeping the main level open and ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A recently replaced water heater adds additional peace of mind. Residents enjoy access to a community pool, while the location offers convenient proximity to the Alliance Corridor with easy commuting, shopping, and dining options nearby. Priced aggressively to attract strong interest—an excellent opportunity in a high-growth area.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $300,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Positioned on a large lot in a growing Rhome community, this move-in-ready home delivers the updates buyers want without the wait. Inside, you’ll find brand new carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, and a complete interior repaint that creates a clean, modern feel from the moment you walk in. The layout offers functional living with all bedrooms upstairs, keeping the main level open and ideal for everyday living and entertaining. A recently replaced water heater adds additional peace of mind. Residents enjoy access to a community pool, while the location offers convenient proximity to the Alliance Corridor with easy commuting, shopping, and dining options nearby. Priced aggressively to attract strong interest—an excellent opportunity in a high-growth area.

17. 2007-03-22
    soldstatus 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    BRAND NEW 2 STORY HOME BUILT BY NUHOME(A DIVISION OF LENNAR)!FOYER OPENS TO COMBINED FORMALS!HUGE FAMILY ROOM(19X15)!ALL BEDROOMS ARE UPSTAIRS. BIG MASTER BEDROOM(19X13)WITH WALK IN CLOSET!THIS HOME IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE WITH FULL SOD, SPRINKLER, SECURITY SYSTEM, PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED YARD, 6FT PRIVACY FENCE, EFFICIENT 12SEER HVAC & MORE!SHALE CREEK HAS COMMUNITY POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE WITH EXERCISE FACILITY & MORE!HURRY TO SEE!

18. 2007-03-06
    historical 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    BRAND NEW 2 STORY HOME BUILT BY NUHOME(A DIVISION OF LENNAR)!FOYER OPENS TO COMBINED FORMALS!HUGE FAMILY ROOM(19X15)!ALL BEDROOMS ARE UPSTAIRS. BIG MASTER BEDROOM(19X13)WITH WALK IN CLOSET!THIS HOME IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE WITH FULL SOD, SPRINKLER, SECURITY SYSTEM, PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED YARD, 6FT PRIVACY FENCE, EFFICIENT 12SEER HVAC & MORE!SHALE CREEK HAS COMMUNITY POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE WITH EXERCISE FACILITY & MORE!HURRY TO SEE!

19. 2006-12-04
    soldstatus
20. 2006-10-30
    listed $155,090 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    BRAND NEW 2 STORY HOME BUILT BY NUHOME(A DIVISION OF LENNAR)!FOYER OPENS TO COMBINED FORMALS!HUGE FAMILY ROOM(19X15)!ALL BEDROOMS ARE UPSTAIRS. BIG MASTER BEDROOM(19X13)WITH WALK IN CLOSET!THIS HOME IS AN EXCELLENT VALUE WITH FULL SOD, SPRINKLER, SECURITY SYSTEM, PROFESSIONALLY LANDSCAPED YARD, 6FT PRIVACY FENCE, EFFICIENT 12SEER HVAC & MORE!SHALE CREEK HAS COMMUNITY POOL, PARK, CLUBHOUSE WITH EXERCISE FACILITY & MORE!HURRY TO SEE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,431 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,059/yr (+$88/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,431
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,522
• − Management: −$2,522
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+103.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $314,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2007-03-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-03-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-30 Listed $155,090 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,431 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.