13445 New Lake Rd

Henryetta, OK 74437

$79,999B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,089/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $376/mo
• Annual: $4,516/yr
• Cap rate: 11.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.16%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#589 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henryetta (town): math 11% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #228 of 270 in OK (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Henryetta Es (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #582 of 845 statewide, top 69%, 529 students, 0% FRL); Henryetta Ms (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #252 of 345 statewide, top 74%, 242 students, 0% FRL); Henryetta Hs (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #314 of 447 statewide, top 72%, 301 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.0% in Henryetta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.