13445 New Lake Rd · Henryetta, OK 74437

$79,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1994 2.50 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable acreage opportunity on approximately 2.5 acres just outside Henryetta offering space, privacy, and flexibility. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features wood-look flooring throughout most of the home, with one bedroom and one bathroom retaining original flooring. The layout is functional with a spacious kitchen and comfortable living area. Window units provide cooling, with the option to add central HVAC if desired. The property includes a large concrete pad suitable for parking, trailers, or outdoor use. The acreage offers a mix of open ground and mature trees, providing room to spread out and use the land in a variety of ways. Located approximately 2.5 miles from Lake Henryetta wit

Key facts

• Large concrete pad
• 2.5 acres
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• CUSTOM-BUILT ISLAND
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• LARGE CONCRETE PAD
• 12X20 STORAGE BUILDING
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Aerobic septic
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; 1 story; Faces southwest; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Storage structure; Mature trees on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate countertops; Aluminum-framed windows; Electric oven and range connections
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.0% in Henryetta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#589 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henryetta (town): math 11% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #228 of 270 in OK (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Henryetta Es (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #582 of 845 statewide, top 69%, 529 students, 0% FRL); Henryetta Ms (math 7% / reading 20%, grade F, #252 of 345 statewide, top 74%, 242 students, 0% FRL); Henryetta Hs (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #314 of 447 statewide, top 72%, 301 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.16%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $67,510
• Equity at exit: $72,069

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $179,908
• Equity at exit: $155,420

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74437

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $374/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $613

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $399	+0% $376	+5% $354	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $333	+0% $376	+5% $419	+10% $462
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $397	base $376	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,999 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,999 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $79,999 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,999 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,999 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,999 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,999 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,999 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,999 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $89,999
19. 2026-04-22
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $374 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 92.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$374
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,045
• − Management: −$1,045
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $3,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henryetta
• NCES district ID: 4014370
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,050
• Composite: 12.5/100
• National rank: #9624
• State rank: #228 of 270 in OK

Livability — Henryetta

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #24020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,058

Population outlook (Okmulgee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,543 people
• By 2030: 36,528 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 34,430 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 32,498 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 28,814 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 25,193 · -32.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Native American 18% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okmulgee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.7) · D 27.7% · R 70.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+32.7 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.61%
• Current HPI: 277.6291
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $89,999 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-22 Listed $99,900 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+32.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $374 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.