406 4th St

Hardin, KY 42048

$67,500B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1986 · Other · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,039/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $275/mo
• Annual: $3,297/yr
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.39%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $18,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $467 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#476 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $68k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.2% in Hardin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.