406 4th St · Hardin, KY 42048

$67,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Other public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1986 7,841 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is less than 20 minutes from Kenlake State Resort Park on beautiful Kentucky Lake. You'll enjoy the covered side porch great for grilling or just relaxing & enjoying the spring weather. The outbuilding provides extra storage & will convey. Step inside to the kitchen that has cabinets & countertops galore, a formal dining room & spacious living rm with built-ins. So much potential in this home for you to make it your own, flip or jump into investing & make it a rental. Home is being sold "AS IS. "

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Formal dining room
• Spacious living rm

Tags

• COVERED SIDE PORCH
• OUTBUILDING
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING RM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 4.0% in Hardin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#476 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $467 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $68k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.39%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $6,624
• Equity at exit: $10,064

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $28,561
• Equity at exit: $5,836

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42048

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   listed $67,500 Active 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is less than 20 minutes from Kenlake State Resort Park on beautiful Kentucky Lake. You'll enjoy the covered side porch great for grilling or just relaxing & enjoying the spring weather. The outbuilding provides extra storage & will convey. Step inside to the kitchen that has cabinets & countertops galore, a formal dining room & spacious living rm with built-ins. So much potential in this home for you to make it your own, flip or jump into investing & make it a rental. Home is being sold "AS IS. "

2. 2010-09-25
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$116/yr (+$10/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$1,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$997
• − Management: −$997
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $2,423
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$582
• After-tax cash flow: $2,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #23849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardin, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,838

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.61%
• Current HPI: 121.572
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+68.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $67,500 WKRMLS
• 2010-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.