1250 County Road 405

Alton, MO 65606

$124,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-630/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-630/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alton Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #813 of 1,115 statewide, top 75%, 283 students, 71% FRL); Alton High (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 336 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severe wear
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate: exterior siding — weathered and discolored