1250 County Road 405 · Alton, MO 65606

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Missouri Ozarks Home on 3 Acres Near Eleven Point River and Mark Twain National ForestEscape to the beauty of the Missouri Ozarks with this fixer upper 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style home situated on 3 acres m/l just minutes from Alton, Missouri. Offering a peaceful country setting with privacy, mature trees, and convenient access to outdoor recreation, this property is ideal as a full-time residence, retirement home, investment property, or weekend getaway. The home features approximately 1,264 square feet of living space with a comfortable layout designed for everyday living. Inside, you'll find central heat and air, a spacious sunroom, and an additional bonus room that could serve as a third bedroom, home office, hobby room, or extra storage space. Recent improvements include a durable metal roof and a new 50-gallon propane water heater, helping provide peace of mind for years to come. Additional features include a private well, septic system, covered breezeway, and attached garage/carport. The spacious yard is surrounded by mature shade trees that create a peaceful atmosphere while providing privacy and natural beauty throughout the seasons. A private deeded driveway easement offers convenient access while maintaining the secluded feel many buyers are searching for. Located just four minutes from town, this property provides the perfect balance of country living and convenience. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate being near the Eleven Point River and thousands of acres of Mark Twain National Forest. Enjoy easy access to fishing, floating, kayaking, hiking, horseback riding, hunting, and miles of scenic trails right in the heart of the Ozarks. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or a property close to some of Southern Missouri's best outdoor recreation, this Ozarks acreage offers comfort, privacy, and endless possibilities.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Metal roof
• Covered breezeway

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• COVERED BREEZEWAY
• SPACIOUS YARD
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts new VA, FHA, conventional loans or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Detached/attached side-entry garage for 1 car
• Utilities: Septic system; Private well; Electric service (Co-Op); Propane/Butane gas; Fiber internet available
• Home design: Frame/wood exterior
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Fully fenced lot; Level, cleared rural property with vista views; Not in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring; Concrete flooring; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (propane); Central cooling (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Washer stays; Dryer stays; Dryer connection (electric); Electric water heater; Ceiling fan(s); Wood-burning stove (fireplace)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-630/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alton Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #813 of 1,115 statewide, top 75%, 283 students, 71% FRL); Alton High (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 336 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,616 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $22,779
• Equity at exit: $67,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $73,128
• Equity at exit: $114,939

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65606

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $117,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-9	+0% $-52	+5% $-96	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-93	+0% $-52	+5% $-12	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-21	base $-52	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 New Listing 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 New Listing 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 New Listing 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $124,900 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $38/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch-style home on 3 acres in the Missouri Ozarks requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severe wear
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate exterior siding — weathered and discolored

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathroom
• Resale paint exterior siding — enhancing curb appeal
• Both landscape and maintain yard — improving curb appeal and increasing property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severe wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tiles — modernizing the bathroom ↑
• Resale paint exterior siding — enhancing curb appeal ↑
• Both landscape and maintain yard — improving curb appeal and increasing property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alton R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2903060
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $29,501
• Composite: 22.1/100
• National rank: #8179
• State rank: #283 of 324 in MO

Livability — Alton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #18027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,540

Population outlook (Oregon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,607 people
• By 2030: 10,352 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 9,829 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 9,286 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 8,392 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 7,136 · -32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oregon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.3pp · 2024: -69.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.1 2020: R+63.8 2016: R+60.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Current HPI: 142.0523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $124,900 SOMO
• 2026-06-04 Listed $124,900 CARMLS