4638 Willow Wood Cir #34

Lake Sarasota, FL 34241

$300,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,124 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$751
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,224/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (6.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#365 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 73% / reading 74%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 691 students, 29% FRL); Sarasota Middle School (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A+, #21 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,278 students, 26% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $300k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.