4638 Willow Wood Cir #34 · Lake Sarasota, FL 34241

$300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1982 2,188 sqft lot $751/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Rarely do homes become available on Willow Wood Circle - and even more rare is finding one with a water view. Offered for the first time, this one-owner residence has been cherished since it was built and now presents a solid foundation with the opportunity to make it your own. Located within the gated community of Bent Tree, Hammocks III is a well-established subdivision offering maintenance-free living with no age restrictions. This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers 2,124 square feet of living space with an inviting layout, including a first-floor primary suite, high vaulted ceilings, and a Florida room

Key facts

• Gated community
• Florida room
• 2,188 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• FLORIDA ROOM
• PRIVATE FRONT COURTYARD
• WOODED SENSE OF PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association approval required
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed (includes HOA/Condo components); Condo/quarterly fees and annual association fee apply; Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Progressive Community Management; HOA fees required (monthly amount shown separately); Association amenities include gated entry and pool; Association fee covers pool, insurance, structure maintenance, and grounds maintenance; Community features include deed restrictions, golf, pool, and golf carts allowed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential villa; Two levels; South-facing; On waterfront with lake and pond views
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of an existing development (villa style)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Landscaped lot; Mature landscaping with trees; Near golf course; Street dead-end

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (6.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#365 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary School (math 73% / reading 74%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 691 students, 29% FRL); Sarasota Middle School (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A+, #21 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,278 students, 26% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $300k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,989 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,227
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-99,455
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,688/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$751
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,384

Max offer price $281,989

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $-17	+0% $-102	+5% $-187	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-231	+0% $-102	+5% $27	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-26	base $-102	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $751 · $9,012/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $300,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-06
   listed $300,000 Active 1802-char remark
9. 1984-10-01
   soldstatus $136,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,688
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,125
• − Management: −$3,125
• − HOA: −$9,012
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,422
• After-tax cash flow: $198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #6453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+120.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,688 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.