37406 Davey Jones Blvd

Captains Cove, VA 23356

$278,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$156
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-241/mo
• Annual: $-2,893/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $78,092

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#371 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Captains Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.