37406 Davey Jones Blvd · Captains Cove, VA 23356

$278,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 2018 10,546 sqft lot $226/sqft · 7% above area Est $275k · at est. $156/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

Key facts

• Kitchen bar
• Engineered hardwoods
• Split floor plan

Tags

• ENGINEERED HARDWOODS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SS APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN BAR
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AREA
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Captains Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#371 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,224 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,130
• List price: $278,900
• Delta: 1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37287 Longboat Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-3%)	5mo	$1,450	$1	79
37352 Davey Jones Blvd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+8%)	12mo	$270,000	$203	73
2488 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+5%)	5mo	$245,000	$189	72
4070 Captains Corridor	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-1%)	12mo	$249,900	$205	68
2282 Yardarm Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+6%)	16mo	$270,000	$207	66
2175 Brigantine Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-4%)	11mo	$338,730	$288	64
2309 Bounty Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+2%)	10mo	$265,000	$211	63
1518 Brigantine Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+4%)	18mo	$264,000	$206	55
2034 Brigantine Blvd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+7%)	22mo	$290,000	$221	51
37046 Forecastle Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+7%)	8mo	$268,000	$203	49
2428 Mayflower Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+6%)	23mo	$307,500	$236	46
3288 Navigator Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+10%)	14mo	$220,000	$162	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,935
• Equity at exit: $98,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $30,508
• Equity at exit: $133,769

Cash invested: $78,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23356

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,436/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$156
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $236,308

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,725
• Closing costs: $8,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38040 Davey Jones Blvd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	14d	1	0.27mi
3928 Captains Corridor Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,700	$1.30	14d	1	0.62mi
38019 Fathom Rd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $156 · $1,872/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,900 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $278,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,900 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $278,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $278,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,900 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,900 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,900 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,900 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    status Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

17. 2026-04-22
    status Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

18. 2026-01-17
    historical Active Under Contract 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

19. 2026-01-17
    historical Active Under Contract 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

20. 2025-10-09
    listed $285,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

21. 2025-10-08
    listed $285,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    9/103 Well Maintained home ready for occupancy now. .. .no waiting. Rancher, 3BR 2 BA featuring engineered hardwoods throughout, Split floor plan (master on one side other two bedrooms on opposite side), SS Appliances, kitchen bar, separate laundry area, front porch, rear deck, 20x23 ft garage. Captains Cove Golf & Waterfront Community amenities offer: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, 3 Pools (2 Outdoor/1 Indoor), Fitness Center, Boat Ramp, Basketball & Pickle-ball Courts, Playground, Picnic Area, Dog Park, Walking/Biking Trails, Security & more. Call for your private showing today!

22. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus $220,000
23. 2021-07-30
    soldstatus $220,000
24. 2021-06-11
    listed $215,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,287 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$851/yr (+$71/mo · 59.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,623
• − Property taxes: −$1,436
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − HOA: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$8,113
• Taxable loss: −$7,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Captains Cove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #14910

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Captains Cove, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,738

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 191.9035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+32.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — ESAR
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — ESAR
• 2025-10-09 Listed $285,000 ESAR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) $220,000 ESAR
• 2021-06-11 Listed $215,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+37.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,436 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.