1430 Ethel St

Olympia, WA 98502

$535,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,208 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$677
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-1,267/mo
• Annual: $-15,200/yr
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.15%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (41.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (46.8% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $285k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Leland P Brown Elementary (316 students, 63% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (447 students, 54% FRL); Capital High School (1,326 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 25% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $410k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.