1430 Ethel St · Olympia, WA 98502

$535,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2016 5,000 sqft lot $242/sqft · at area comps Est $548k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, ideally located just minutes from everything the west side has to offer- restaurants, shopping, parks, and schools. The main floor features a formal living/dining space which flows seamlessly into the kitchen with eating nook and the family room with cozy gas fireplace for cool evenings. Stylish stainless steel accents add a modern touch with a unique fireplace surround and kitchen backsplash. Upstairs, a large primary suite with french doors, a 5-piece bath, and walk-in closet, plus 3 more spacious bedrooms and a full bath. Enjoy summer evenings on the back deck or explore the nearby parks and trails. Heat pump to keep you cool all summer, and a 2-

Key facts

• Kitchen backsplash
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING DINING SPACE
• KITCHEN WITH EATING NOOK
• FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL ACCENTS
• UNIQUE FIREPLACE SURROUND
• KITCHEN BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RLI; Lot approximately 5,000 sq ft (0.1148 acres); Site features include gas availability
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($393.75) covering common area maintenance; Association managed by VIS Group, Inc.; Community governed by CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (has garage); Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Garage approximately 420 sq ft
• Utilities: Public water (City of Olympia); Sewer connected (City of Olympia); Electric and natural gas available; Power by Puget Sound Energy; Internet via Xfinity
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story house; Entry on main level; Built on lot; Facing/direction not specified
• Construction: Cement plank and wood construction materials; Composition roof; Concrete ribbon foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Cement-planked and wood exterior; Deck; Cable TV available; Curbs and paved surroundings; Level to partially sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 half bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (gas); Walk-in closet(s); Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on main level; Gas water heater located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (41.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (46.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Leland P Brown Elementary (316 students, 63% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (447 students, 54% FRL); Capital High School (1,326 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 25% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $410k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $284,726 (46.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.15%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $547,582
• List price: $535,000
• Delta: -2.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1228 Tabitha Ct NW	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,176 (-1%)	12mo	$650,000	$299	80
1322 Tabitha Ct NW	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,294 (+4%)	12mo	$630,000	$275	72
707 Wily St NW	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,379 (+8%)	1mo	$603,500	$254	66
702 Wily St NW	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,195 (-1%)	9mo	$600,000	$273	66
2619 NW Walnut Loop	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,504 (+13%)	6mo	$570,000	$228	65
2201 Cooper Crest St NW	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,220 (+0%)	3mo	$545,000	$245	64
1615 Easthill Ct NW	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,999 (-10%)	2mo	$575,000	$288	61
1418 Ethel St NW	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,897 (-14%)	11mo	$555,000	$293	60
821 Sarah Ct NW	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,076 (-6%)	9mo	$494,000	$238	58
2205 Cooper Crest Pl NW	0.71mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,151 (-3%)	3mo	$475,000	$221	55
1959 Orchard Dr NW	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,113 (-4%)	3mo	$565,000	$267	54
2316 Bowman Ave NW	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,538 (+15%)	11mo	$605,000	$238	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $211,092
• Equity at exit: $481,970

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $685,873
• Equity at exit: $1,039,387

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,454/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $-1,267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,451

Max offer price $311,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-964	-5% $-1,115	+0% $-1,267	+5% $-1,418	+10% $-1,570
Rent	-10% $-1,492	-5% $-1,379	+0% $-1,267	+5% $-1,154	+10% $-1,042
Rate	-1.0pp $-997	-0.5pp $-1,131	base $-1,267	+0.5pp $-1,405	+1.0pp $-1,546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Burbank Ave NW Unit NA Olympia, WA	4.0	3.0	1750	$2,650	$1.51	45d	1	0.73mi
4407 Goldcrest Dr NW Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2615	$2,950	$1.13	45d	1	0.97mi
1901 Hudson St NW Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,700	$1.58	15d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $535,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $535,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $535,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $535,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $535,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $535,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $535,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $535,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $535,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $535,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $535,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $535,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $550,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $550,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $550,000 Active
18. 2020-11-18
    soldstatus $409,999 Sold
19. 2020-10-30
    status Pending
20. 2020-10-15
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2020-10-08
    price $409,999
22. 2020-09-28
    price $419,900
23. 2020-09-17
    listed $427,700 Active
24. 2017-05-30
    soldstatus $305,000 Sold
25. 2017-04-15
    status Pending
26. 2017-03-04
    price $312,000
27. 2016-10-19
    listed $305,950 Active
28. 2016-07-14
    soldstatus $170,000
29. 2013-05-06
    soldstatus $750,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,454 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,454 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$5,454
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,733
• − Management: −$2,733
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable loss: −$25,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $535,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $550,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-18 Sold (MLS) $409,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-08 Price Changed $409,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $419,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-17 Listed $427,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-30 Sold (MLS) $305,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-04 Price Changed $312,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-19 Listed $305,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,454 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.