152 Jay Ct

Golden's Bridge, NY 10518

$665,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,008 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax + insurance: −$886
• HOA: −$810
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,103
• Net cashflow: $-1,032/mo
• Annual: $-12,388/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $186,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $665k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $483k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $525k (21.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $483k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #32 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Increase Miller Elementary School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 9% FRL); John Jay Middle School (math 58% / reading 79%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 7% FRL); John Jay High School (math 98% / reading 82%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 917 students, 9% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $665k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.3% in Golden's Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.