152 Jay Ct · Golden's Bridge, NY 10518

$665,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,008 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 1,204 sqft lot Est $715k · 7% under $810/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 152 Jay Court, a bright and inviting end-unit townhome set in the highly sought-after Meadows community. This spacious three-level layout offers over 2,000 sq ft of comfortable living, highlighted by natural light, wooded views, and well-proportioned rooms throughout. The main level features an open-concept living and dining area with parquet flooring, a wood-burning fireplace, and sliders that lead out to a private deck—an easy extension of the living space. The updated eat-in kitchen offers white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and a charming bay-window bench overlooking the front courtyard. Upstairs, you'll find two generously sized bedrooms, each w

Key facts

• $810 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee; Monthly association fee includes pool service and snow removal; Association amenity: Basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Electric service by NYSEG; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Finished full basement; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $665k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $483k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $525k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $483k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.3% in Golden's Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #32 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Increase Miller Elementary School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 9% FRL); John Jay Middle School (math 58% / reading 79%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 662 students, 7% FRL); John Jay High School (math 98% / reading 82%, grade A+, #238 of 1,100 statewide, top 23%, 917 students, 9% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $665k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $482,627 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $714,848
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Debbie Ln	0.75mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,136 (+6%)	24mo	$760,000	$356	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $154,648
• Equity at exit: $447,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $501,074
• Equity at exit: $839,048

Cash invested: $186,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10518

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,308/yr
• Insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$810
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,103
• Net cashflow: $-1,032

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,561

Max offer price $482,627

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-656	-5% $-844	+0% $-1,032	+5% $-1,221	+10% $-1,409
Rent	-10% $-1,447	-5% $-1,240	+0% $-1,032	+5% $-825	+10% $-617
Rate	-1.0pp $-697	-0.5pp $-863	base $-1,032	+0.5pp $-1,205	+1.0pp $-1,380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $166,250
• Closing costs: $19,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $810 · $9,720/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-02
   listed $665,000 Active
3. 2001-08-08
   soldstatus $310,000
4. 1988-04-01
   soldstatus $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,308 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,273 · $773/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,965/yr (+$164/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,250
• − Property taxes: −$7,308
• − Insurance: −$3,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,044
• − Management: −$5,044
• − HOA: −$9,720
• − Depreciation: −$19,345
• Taxable loss: −$23,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616080
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $140,994
• Composite: 75.09/100
• National rank: #142
• State rank: #32 of 590 in NY

Livability — Golden's Bridge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,040
• Population (ZIP): 789

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Current HPI: 129.44
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed $665,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,308 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.