13239 Larkway

San Antonio, TX 78233

$169,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-201/mo
• Annual: $-2,415/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodstone El (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 552 students, 74% FRL); Wood Middle (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 706 students, 72% FRL); Madison H S (math 26% / reading 49%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,850 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 41% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 310 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.