21115 Autumn Heights Dr

Bonney, TX 77583

$284,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax + insurance: −$473
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-119/mo
• Annual: $-1,432/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $79,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,037 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frontier El (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 445 students, 53% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bonney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?