21115 Autumn Heights Dr · Bonney, TX 77583

$284,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $168/sqft · 10% below area Est $314k · 10% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to The Williamson, a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile option for a study. With a spacious 2-car garage and an open-concept layout, this plan seamlessly combines comfort and functionality. The inviting living area flows into the dining and kitchen spaces, then opens onto a large covered patio—perfect for gatherings or relaxing outdoors. The private primary retreat offers a peaceful escape with ample space to unwind. Located in the new master-planned community of Aldeana along the 288 corridor, residents enjoy convenient access to both the coastal recreation areas and the Houston Medical Center. Part of the sought-after Angleton ISD, Aldeana places you closer to Houston’s employment centers than most communities in the district. Combining modern style, flexible living, and a prime location, The Williamson is the perfect place to call home.

Key facts

• One story home
• Convenient access
• Large covered patio

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY RETREAT
• MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bonney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,037 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frontier El (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 445 students, 53% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,311 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,829
• List price: $284,000
• Delta: -9.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-59,604
• Equity at exit: $42,345

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-85,009
• Equity at exit: $24,555

Cash invested: $79,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$355 /mo · $4,260/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,564

Max offer price $266,737

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $-21	+0% $-119	+5% $-217	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-215	+0% $-119	+5% $-24	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-47	base $-119	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,000
• Closing costs: $8,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $284,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,688 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $311,688 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,688 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,688 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $311,688 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $311,688 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $311,688 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $311,688 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $311,688 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $311,688 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $311,688 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $311,688 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $311,688 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to The Williamson, a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile option for a study. With a spacious 2-car garage and an open-concept layout, this plan seamlessly combines comfort and functionality. The inviting living area flows into the dining and kitchen spaces, then opens onto a large covered patio—perfect for gatherings or relaxing outdoors. The private primary retreat offers a peaceful escape with ample space to unwind. Located in the new master-planned community of Aldeana along the 288 corridor, residents enjoy convenient access to both the coastal recreation areas and the Houston Medical Center. Part of the sought-after Angleton ISD, Aldeana places you closer to Houston’s employment centers than most communities in the district. Combining modern style, flexible living, and a prime location, The Williamson is the perfect place to call home.

17. 2026-05-08
    price $301,689 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to The Williamson, a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile option for a study. With a spacious 2-car garage and an open-concept layout, this plan seamlessly combines comfort and functionality. The inviting living area flows into the dining and kitchen spaces, then opens onto a large covered patio—perfect for gatherings or relaxing outdoors. The private primary retreat offers a peaceful escape with ample space to unwind. Located in the new master-planned community of Aldeana along the 288 corridor, residents enjoy convenient access to both the coastal recreation areas and the Houston Medical Center. Part of the sought-after Angleton ISD, Aldeana places you closer to Houston’s employment centers than most communities in the district. Combining modern style, flexible living, and a prime location, The Williamson is the perfect place to call home.

18. 2026-03-19
    listed $291,689 Active 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to The Williamson, a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile option for a study. With a spacious 2-car garage and an open-concept layout, this plan seamlessly combines comfort and functionality. The inviting living area flows into the dining and kitchen spaces, then opens onto a large covered patio—perfect for gatherings or relaxing outdoors. The private primary retreat offers a peaceful escape with ample space to unwind. Located in the new master-planned community of Aldeana along the 288 corridor, residents enjoy convenient access to both the coastal recreation areas and the Houston Medical Center. Part of the sought-after Angleton ISD, Aldeana places you closer to Houston’s employment centers than most communities in the district. Combining modern style, flexible living, and a prime location, The Williamson is the perfect place to call home.

19. 2026-03-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to The Williamson, a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile option for a study. With a spacious 2-car garage and an open-concept layout, this plan seamlessly combines comfort and functionality. The inviting living area flows into the dining and kitchen spaces, then opens onto a large covered patio—perfect for gatherings or relaxing outdoors. The private primary retreat offers a peaceful escape with ample space to unwind. Located in the new master-planned community of Aldeana along the 288 corridor, residents enjoy convenient access to both the coastal recreation areas and the Houston Medical Center. Part of the sought-after Angleton ISD, Aldeana places you closer to Houston’s employment centers than most communities in the district. Combining modern style, flexible living, and a prime location, The Williamson is the perfect place to call home.

20. 2026-02-27
    price $310,307
21. 2026-01-30
    price $309,307
22. 2026-01-23
    price $311,307
23. 2026-01-15
    listed $309,307 Active
24. 2026-01-15
    historical
25. 2025-10-19
    price $309,307
26. 2025-10-06
    listed $317,320 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,908
• − Property taxes: −$4,260
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,262
• Taxable loss: −$6,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $76/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the interior walls are in good condition. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bonney

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1037
• US rank: #18490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonney, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $311,688 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $301,689 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $291,689 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $310,307 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $309,307 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $311,307 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $309,307 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $309,307 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $317,320 HARMLS