3 Lerner Dr

Calistoga, CA 94515

$1,790,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,069 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,387
• Tax + insurance: −$1,739
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,092
• Net cashflow: $-3,257/mo
• Annual: $-39,087/yr
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.80%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $501,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.21M (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $996k (44.4% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $996k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calistoga Elementary (412 students, 82% FRL); Calistoga Junior/Senior High (380 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $210k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $855k; list at $1.79M implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,961/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.