3 Lerner Dr · Calistoga, CA 94515

$1,790,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,069 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1991 0.25 ac lot $440/sqft · 23% below area Est $2321k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK WANTS to DEAL! Beautifully designed French Style Chateau. Beamed living room, Meticulously crafted finishing touches and great attention to detail. Four en suite bedrooms, all with custom tile baths. Over 3500 sq ft of French country style set in the heart of Calistoga. Picture Windows and French doors open to the sweeping terraces and decks offering views of Calistoga surrounding mountains. Barrel arched hallways and plastered walls. Large Spa Style Bath rooms. Custom kitchen with hand painted cabinets, granite tile and marble floors, huge pantry and charming breakfast nook with soaring ceilings of timbered beams. The stunning French style garden with barista style patios fountains, hot tub, and outdoor shower for a quick cool off after a dip in the Spa. Large Sport room for the pool table and entertaining the guest off the impressive entertaining areas. equipped with a additional tiled half bath, entertaining bar and mini-kitchen too!. Fireplace: Built-In. Kitchen: Separate. Location and Close To: Downtown. Location and Close To: Restaurants. Location and Close To: Shopping.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces; Drive-through parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1991
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered rear porch; Front yard and backyard; Terraced rear yard; Low-maintenance landscaping; Yard space; Wood fencing (fenced yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with additional/other features
• Bedrooms: Multiple additional rooms including au pair suite and bonus/bedroom-capable spaces
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms (5 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Atrium; Au pair/secondary suite; Den; Family room; Library; Music room; Study/office; Unfinished room; Utility room; 2 fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($64k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.79M).
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $501k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $210k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $855k; list at $1.79M implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,763,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.78%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,320,924
• List price: $1,790,000
• Delta: -13.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $49,496
• Equity at exit: $266,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $479,079
• Equity at exit: $154,766

Cash invested: $501,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,387
• Tax from tax record: −$993 /mo · $11,922/yr
• Insurance: −$746
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,377
• Net cashflow: $5,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,084

Max offer price $1,790,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,352	-5% $5,845	+0% $5,338	+5% $4,832	+10% $4,325
Rent	-10% $3,692	-5% $4,515	+0% $5,338	+5% $6,162	+10% $6,985
Rate	-1.0pp $6,240	-0.5pp $5,794	base $5,338	+0.5pp $4,875	+1.0pp $4,403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $447,500
• Closing costs: $53,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1823 Foothill Blvd Calistoga, CA	4.0	3.5	2889	$9,900	$3.43	3d	1	0.26mi
375 Kortum Canyon Rd Calistoga, CA	4.0	4.5	4622	$37,000	$8.01	22d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $1,790,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-04-14
   listed $2,000,000 Active 968-char remark
6. 2026-04-14
   listed $2,000,000 Active 968-char remark
7. 2010-11-15
   soldstatus $855,000 1138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

   HUGE PRICE REDUCTION BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK WANTS to DEAL! Beautifully designed French Style Chateau. Beamed living room, Meticulously crafted finishing touches and great attention to detail. Four en suite bedrooms, all with custom tile baths. Over 3500 sq ft of French country style set in the heart of Calistoga. Picture Windows and French doors open to the sweeping terraces and decks offering views of Calistoga surrounding mountains. Barrel arched hallways and plastered walls. Large Spa Style Bath rooms. Custom kitchen with hand painted cabinets, granite tile and marble floors, huge pantry and charming breakfast nook with soaring ceilings of timbered beams. The stunning French style garden with barista style patios fountains, hot tub, and outdoor shower for a quick cool off after a dip in the Spa. Large Sport room for the pool table and entertaining the guest off the impressive entertaining areas. equipped with a additional tiled half bath, entertaining bar and mini-kitchen too!. Fireplace: Built-In. Kitchen: Separate. Location and Close To: Downtown. Location and Close To: Restaurants. Location and Close To: Shopping.

8. 2010-11-15
   soldstatus $855,000

   Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

   HUGE PRICE REDUCTION BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK WANTS to DEAL! Beautifully designed French Style Chateau. Beamed living room, Meticulously crafted finishing touches and great attention to detail. Four en suite bedrooms, all with custom tile baths. Over 3500 sq ft of French country style set in the heart of Calistoga. Picture Windows and French doors open to the sweeping terraces and decks offering views of Calistoga surrounding mountains. Barrel arched hallways and plastered walls. Large Spa Style Bath rooms. Custom kitchen with hand painted cabinets, granite tile and marble floors, huge pantry and charming breakfast nook with soaring ceilings of timbered beams. The stunning French style garden with barista style patios fountains, hot tub, and outdoor shower for a quick cool off after a dip in the Spa. Large Sport room for the pool table and entertaining the guest off the impressive entertaining areas. equipped with a additional tiled half bath, entertaining bar and mini-kitchen too!. Fireplace: Built-In. Kitchen: Separate. Location and Close To: Downtown. Location and Close To: Restaurants. Location and Close To: Shopping.

9. 2010-11-05
   historical 1138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

   HUGE PRICE REDUCTION BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK WANTS to DEAL! Beautifully designed French Style Chateau. Beamed living room, Meticulously crafted finishing touches and great attention to detail. Four en suite bedrooms, all with custom tile baths. Over 3500 sq ft of French country style set in the heart of Calistoga. Picture Windows and French doors open to the sweeping terraces and decks offering views of Calistoga surrounding mountains. Barrel arched hallways and plastered walls. Large Spa Style Bath rooms. Custom kitchen with hand painted cabinets, granite tile and marble floors, huge pantry and charming breakfast nook with soaring ceilings of timbered beams. The stunning French style garden with barista style patios fountains, hot tub, and outdoor shower for a quick cool off after a dip in the Spa. Large Sport room for the pool table and entertaining the guest off the impressive entertaining areas. equipped with a additional tiled half bath, entertaining bar and mini-kitchen too!. Fireplace: Built-In. Kitchen: Separate. Location and Close To: Downtown. Location and Close To: Restaurants. Location and Close To: Shopping.

10. 2010-03-09
    listed $875,000 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    HUGE PRICE REDUCTION BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK WANTS to DEAL! Beautifully designed French Style Chateau. Beamed living room, Meticulously crafted finishing touches and great attention to detail. Four en suite bedrooms, all with custom tile baths. Over 3500 sq ft of French country style set in the heart of Calistoga. Picture Windows and French doors open to the sweeping terraces and decks offering views of Calistoga surrounding mountains. Barrel arched hallways and plastered walls. Large Spa Style Bath rooms. Custom kitchen with hand painted cabinets, granite tile and marble floors, huge pantry and charming breakfast nook with soaring ceilings of timbered beams. The stunning French style garden with barista style patios fountains, hot tub, and outdoor shower for a quick cool off after a dip in the Spa. Large Sport room for the pool table and entertaining the guest off the impressive entertaining areas. equipped with a additional tiled half bath, entertaining bar and mini-kitchen too!. Fireplace: Built-In. Kitchen: Separate. Location and Close To: Downtown. Location and Close To: Restaurants. Location and Close To: Shopping.

11. 2006-06-02
    soldstatus $950,000
12. 1998-01-20
    soldstatus $370,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,922 · $993/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,604 · $1,134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,682/yr (+$140/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $250,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,268
• − Property taxes: −$11,922
• − Insurance: −$8,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,008
• − Management: −$20,008
• − Depreciation: −$52,073
• Taxable income: $36,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,848
• After-tax cash flow: $55,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+383.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $1,790,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $1,790,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $1,790,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-27 Listed $2,000,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $2,000,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-14 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $855,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-15 Sold (MLS) $855,000 CRMLS
• 2010-11-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-03-09 Listed $875,000 CRMLS
• 2006-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,922 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.