3 Lerner Dr · Calistoga, CA 94515

$1,790,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,069 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition 0.25 ac lot Garage $440/sqft · 20% below area Est $2.249M · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICE REDUCTION BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK WANTS to DEAL! Beautifully designed French Style Chateau. Beamed living room, Meticulously crafted finishing touches and great attention to detail. Four en suite bedrooms, all with custom tile baths. Over 3500 sq ft of French country style set in the heart of Calistoga. Picture Windows and French doors open to the sweeping terraces and decks offering views of Calistoga surrounding mountains. Barrel arched hallways and plastered walls. Large Spa Style Bath rooms. Custom kitchen with hand painted cabinets, granite tile and marble floors, huge pantry and charming breakfast nook with soaring ceilings of timbered beams. The stunning French style garden with barista style patios fountains, hot tub, and outdoor shower for a quick cool off after a dip in the Spa. Large Sport room for the pool table and entertaining the guest off the impressive entertaining areas. equipped with a additional tiled half bath, entertaining bar and mini-kitchen too!. Fireplace: Built-In. Kitchen: Separate. Location and Close To: Downtown. Location and Close To: Restaurants. Location and Close To: Shopping.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($64k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.79M).
• Recommended offer: $1.58M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.6% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calistoga Elementary (412 students, 82% FRL); Calistoga Junior/Senior High (380 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,841/mo this rent would consume 257% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $501k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $210k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $855k; list at $1.79M implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,575,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.78%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,248,777
• List price: $1,790,000
• Delta: -20.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3121 Ca-128 Hwy	1.39mi	3/3.0	3,300 (-19%)	5mo	$1,711,125	$519	34
971 Petrified Forest Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,179 (-22%)	16mo	$2,200,000	$692	30
939 Highland Ct	0.70mi	3/3.5	3,108 (-24%)	22mo	$2,200,000	$708	24
1450 Diamond Mountain Rd	1.10mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,100 (-24%)	10mo	$3,200,000	$1,032	23
1706 Garnett Creek Ct	0.94mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,168 (-22%)	13mo	$2,251,350	$711	22
910 Highland Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,330 (-18%)	33mo	$1,825,000	$548	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $49,496
• Equity at exit: $266,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $479,079
• Equity at exit: $154,766

Cash invested: $501,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $3,640,500 ($906/sqft)
• Median days on market: 217 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -39.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,387
• Tax from tax record: −$993 /mo · $11,922/yr
• Insurance: −$746
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,377
• Net cashflow: $5,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,084

Max offer price $1,790,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,352	-5% $5,845	+0% $5,338	+5% $4,832	+10% $4,325
Rent	-10% $3,692	-5% $4,515	+0% $5,338	+5% $6,162	+10% $6,985
Rate	-1.0pp $6,240	-0.5pp $5,794	base $5,338	+0.5pp $4,875	+1.0pp $4,403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $447,500
• Closing costs: $53,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1823 Foothill Blvd Calistoga, CA	4.0	3.5	2889	$9,900	$3.43	0d	1	0.26mi
375 Kortum Canyon Rd Calistoga, CA	4.0	4.5	4622	$37,000	$8.01	116d	1	0.47mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spacesDrive-through parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyBuilt in 1991
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: DeckCovered rear porchFront yard and backyardTerraced rear yardLow-maintenance landscapingYard spaceWood fencing (fenced yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with additional/other features
• Bedrooms: Multiple additional rooms including au pair suite and bonus/bedroom-capable spaces
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms (5 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: AtriumAu pair/secondary suiteDenFamily roomLibraryMusic roomStudy/officeUnfinished roomUtility room2 fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 100 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 97 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 96 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 95 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 94 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 93 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 92 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 91 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 78 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 77 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 76 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 73 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 71 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 70 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 69 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 65 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 64 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $1,790,000 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,922 · $993/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,604 · $1,134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,682/yr (+$140/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $250,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,268
• − Property taxes: −$11,922
• − Insurance: −$8,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,008
• − Management: −$20,008
• − Depreciation: −$52,073
• Taxable income: $36,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,848
• After-tax cash flow: $55,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $20,345–$61,035 screening

This French-inspired château is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and cleaning gutters would significantly enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calistoga Elementary High Calistoga Junior/senior High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• County: Napa · 153,987 people
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921
• Household income: $97,202
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spacesDrive-through parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyBuilt in 1991
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: DeckCovered rear porchFront yard and backyardTerraced rear yardLow-maintenance landscapingYard spaceWood fencing (fenced yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with additional/other features
• Bedrooms: Multiple additional rooms including au pair suite and bonus/bedroom-capable spaces
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms (5 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: AtriumAu pair/secondary suiteDenFamily roomLibraryMusic roomStudy/officeUnfinished roomUtility room2 fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

Price history

+383.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $1,790,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $1,790,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $1,790,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-27 Listed $2,000,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $2,000,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-14 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $855,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-15 Sold (MLS) $855,000 CRMLS
• 2010-11-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-03-09 Listed $875,000 CRMLS
• 2006-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,922 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.