2809 Hayes Rd

Harrison, MI 48625

$94,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 643 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-455/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $26,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-455/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#471 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robert M Larson Elementary School (606 students, 85% FRL); Harrison Middle School (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 282 students, 81% FRL); Harrison Community High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 341 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Harrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.