2809 Hayes Rd · Hayes, MI 48625

$94,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1954 0.65 ac lot $148/sqft · 28% below area Est $133k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well cared for cottage with access to all sport Townline Lake. This 1 bedroom, 1 full bath cottage has an open floor plan, gas log free standing fire place to help take off the chill, artesian well that the excess water runs through a tube onto the additional lots across the road and the into Townline Lake. The septic system was updated in 2013 and a new metal roof was installed on the cottage in 2017. There is a 12x20 Bunk House for extra guests that does need some finishing. The subdivision waterfront park is only steps away from the cottage, the seller has a boat dock in place. Townline Lake is part of a chain of lakes.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Artesian well
• 12x20 bunk house

Tags

• ARTESIAN WELL
• UPDATED SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW METAL ROOF
• 12X20 BUNK HOUSE
• SUBDIVISION WATERFRONT PARK
• TOWNLINE LAKE CHAIN OF LAKES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-455/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robert M Larson Elementary School (606 students, 85% FRL); Harrison Middle School (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 282 students, 81% FRL); Harrison Community High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 341 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,216 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,676
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -28.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6170 Townline Lake Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-7%)	19mo	$125,000	$208	54
6651 Circle Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	660 (+3%)	12mo	$185,000	$280	48
6610 Circle Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (+12%)	13mo	$88,800	$123	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-17,782
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-18,546
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $89,412

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-5	+0% $-38	+5% $-71	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-69	+0% $-38	+5% $-7	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-14	base $-38	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 196 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    status Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Well cared for cottage with access to all sport Townline Lake. This 1 bedroom, 1 full bath cottage has an open floor plan, gas log free standing fire place to help take off the chill, artesian well that the excess water runs through a tube onto the additional lots across the road and the into Townline Lake. The septic system was updated in 2013 and a new metal roof was installed on the cottage in 2017. There is a 12x20 Bunk House for extra guests that does need some finishing. The subdivision waterfront park is only steps away from the cottage, the seller has a boat dock in place. Townline Lake is part of a chain of lakes.

19. 2026-05-15
    historical 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Well cared for cottage with access to all sport Townline Lake. This 1 bedroom, 1 full bath cottage has an open floor plan, gas log free standing fire place to help take off the chill, artesian well that the excess water runs through a tube onto the additional lots across the road and the into Townline Lake. The septic system was updated in 2013 and a new metal roof was installed on the cottage in 2017. There is a 12x20 Bunk House for extra guests that does need some finishing. The subdivision waterfront park is only steps away from the cottage, the seller has a boat dock in place. Townline Lake is part of a chain of lakes.

20. 2025-11-14
    listed $94,900 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Well cared for cottage with access to all sport Townline Lake. This 1 bedroom, 1 full bath cottage has an open floor plan, gas log free standing fire place to help take off the chill, artesian well that the excess water runs through a tube onto the additional lots across the road and the into Townline Lake. The septic system was updated in 2013 and a new metal roof was installed on the cottage in 2017. There is a 12x20 Bunk House for extra guests that does need some finishing. The subdivision waterfront park is only steps away from the cottage, the seller has a boat dock in place. Townline Lake is part of a chain of lakes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$751
• − Management: −$751
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable loss: −$2,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$502
• After-tax cash flow: $47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hayes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $98 · -82.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.