93 Forest Ave

New Castle, VA 24127

$250,000D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · Built 1962 · Other · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,399/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-401/mo
• Annual: $-4,817/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (44.0% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccleary Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 211 students, 75% FRL); Craig County High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 265 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 40% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.