93 Forest Ave · New Castle, VA 24127

$250,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · Other public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1962 2.91 ac lot $149/sqft · 8% below area Est $271k · 8% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This one-level home offers space, convenience, and plenty of potential! Featuring 5 bedrooms and 4 full bathrooms, including two bedrooms with attached baths, providing room for a variety of living needs. Home is solid and ready for your personal touch to make it your own. Sitting on 2.91 acres with a mix of flat, cleared land and additional wooded acreage behind the home. Enjoy the outdoors from the large covered back patio! Multiple sheds, unfinished basement, and encapsulated crawl space provide ample storage space. Conveniently located just minutes from the town of New Castle, it is also close to the surrounding National Forest, as over half of Craig County is protected forest land.

Key facts

• Multiple sheds
• Unfinished basement
• Attached baths

Tags

• ATTACHED BATHS
• LARGE COVERED BACK PATIO
• MULTIPLE SHEDS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ENCAPSULATED CRAWL SPACE
• PROTECTED FOREST LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1962
• Construction: Year built: 1962
• Exterior features: Side porch; Approximately 2.91-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms (all on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air oil heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Storage space; Laminate and vinyl flooring; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccleary Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 211 students, 75% FRL); Craig County High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 265 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 40% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $139,892 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,172
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -7.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $110,477
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $345,212
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24127

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $179,092

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-260	-5% $-331	+0% $-401	+5% $-472	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-512	-5% $-457	+0% $-401	+5% $-346	+10% $-291
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-338	base $-401	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $250,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
20. 2026-05-18
    price $299,000 695-char remark
21. 2026-05-05
    listed $315,000 Active 695-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$954/yr (+$79/mo · 87.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Craig County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101020
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,848
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2469
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #23547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,184

Population outlook (Craig County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,253 people
• By 2030: 5,208 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 4,949 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 4,489 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 3,379 · -35.7%
• By 2100: 2,293 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craig

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.7) · D 17.4% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.7 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+57.4 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.92%
• Current HPI: 223.1666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $250,000 MLSRV
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $275,000 MLSRV
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $299,000 MLSRV
• 2026-05-05 Listed $315,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.