3816 Shadow Bend Dr

Red Chute, LA 71037

$226,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,879/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $101/mo
• Annual: $1,214/yr
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $63,532

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (17.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $188k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#290 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bossier Parish (urban): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #17 of 98 in LA (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockwell Place Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #27 of 646 statewide, top 5%, 594 students, 45% FRL); Cope Middle School (math 42% / reading 54%, grade C-, #35 of 218 statewide, top 16%, 836 students, 58% FRL); Airline High School (math 49% / reading 56%, grade C-, #30 of 265 statewide, top 12%, 2,021 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Bossier Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 716 units permitted in Bossier Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bossier County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.7% in Red Chute — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.