437 E Germann Rd #67

San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$69,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $1,241/mo
• Annual: $14,897/yr
• Cap rate: 28.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.19%
• DSCR: 4.57
• 1% rule: 3.24%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• J O Combs Unified School District (4445) (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #109 of 249 in AZ (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.7% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.