437 E Germann Rd #67 · San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition Est $52k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A rare find at a great price! AND 3 months FREE lot rent. Welcome to the next chapter of your wonderful life. This beautiful ''mostly furnished'' home is located on an attractive corner lot. It is ground set with 3BRs (split floorplan) & two full Baths. You'll be greeted with a spacious, open feeling in this well layed out and cared for home. Designed with neutral paint, plantation shutters, ceiling fans and so much storage. There's a mobile island in your bright and airy kitchen with white appliances and many custom pull-out drawers. You'll love the newer laminate flooring throughout. (no carpet here). Your primary bath has a garden tub and shower. It's right across from the pool and

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Fitness center
• Remodeled clubhouse

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING
• GARDEN TUB
• REMODELED CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions to the property available
• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community spa (heated); Fitness center; Association maintains grounds, streets, and trash; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Land lease of $1,115 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Desert front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Furnished (see remarks); No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Master bedroom with full bathroom; Separate shower and tub; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.7% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• J O Combs Unified School District (4445) (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #109 of 249 in AZ (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.19%
• DSCR: 4.57
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $52,416
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
747 E Germann Rd #94	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-1%)	7mo	$52,000	$39	75
747 E Germann Rd #67	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+12%)	2mo	$25,000	$17	63
437 E Germann Rd #118	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-8%)	22mo	$95,000	$77	62
654 E Ranch Rd #53	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$29,500	$24	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $64,889
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.51×
• Total profit: $146,920
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85140

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 837
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $1,241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $696

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,290	-5% $1,266	+0% $1,241	+5% $1,217	+10% $1,193
Rent	-10% $1,062	-5% $1,152	+0% $1,241	+5% $1,331	+10% $1,421
Rate	-1.0pp $1,277	-0.5pp $1,259	base $1,241	+0.5pp $1,223	+1.0pp $1,205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
371 W Flame Tree Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1874	$2,195	$1.17	17d	1	1.10mi
784 W Leadwood Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1541	$2,200	$1.43	25d	1	1.27mi
43230 N Plum St San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.5	1846	$2,393	$1.30	25d	1	1.27mi
1101 E Elm Rd San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,785	$1.19	25d	1	1.39mi
232 W Stanley Ave San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,100	$1.39	16d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$1,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $14,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,530
• After-tax cash flow: $11,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with neutral paint, laminate flooring, and well-maintained landscaping. It has a good foundation and structure, and the kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old flooring with something more modern can improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing old flooring with something more modern can improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: J O Combs Unified School District (4445)
• NCES district ID: 0403990
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,053
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7314
• State rank: #109 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 95,704
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 51,260
• Household income: $101,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.81%
• Current HPI: 268.1579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $79,900 ARMLS