149 June St

Hemphill, TX 75948

$159,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Built 2013 · Manufactured · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $908/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $-353/mo
• Annual: $-4,239/yr
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.52%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (42.9% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#530 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 334 students, 66% FRL); Hemphill Middle (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 252 students, 63% FRL); Hemphill H S (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #939 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 254 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.