149 June St · Hemphill, TX 75948

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2013 0.85 ac lot $73/sqft · 47% below area Est $302k · 47% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 4BR/2BA manufactured home in Toledo Beach Subdivision, located in the growing Fairmount area. This well-kept home offers an open-concept living and dining space that flows into a spacious kitchen with center island, built-in bar, large pantry, and oversized utility room. One wing features three bedrooms, a full bath with double vanities, and a flex nook ideal for a desk or office space. The private primary suite is split from the secondary bedrooms and includes double vanities, garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet. Enjoy the wide covered front porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Property includes a gravel circle drive, 20x50 metal carport, and workshop for tools or recreational equipment. Located in a subdivision with community boat access just minutes away.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large pantry
• Built-in bar

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• BUILT-IN BAR
• LARGE PANTRY
• OVERSIZED UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#530 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hemphill ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 334 students, 66% FRL); Hemphill Middle (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 252 students, 63% FRL); Hemphill H S (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #939 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 254 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,940 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.74%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,917
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -47.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-34,612
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-41,530
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75948

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $134,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-94	+0% $-139	+5% $-184	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-186	+0% $-139	+5% $-92	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-98	base $-139	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $159,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-02-17
    listed $169,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Great 4BR/2BA manufactured home in Toledo Beach Subdivision, located in the growing Fairmount area. This well-kept home offers an open-concept living and dining space that flows into a spacious kitchen with center island, built-in bar, large pantry, and oversized utility room. One wing features three bedrooms, a full bath with double vanities, and a flex nook ideal for a desk or office space. The private primary suite is split from the secondary bedrooms and includes double vanities, garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet. Enjoy the wide covered front porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Property includes a gravel circle drive, 20x50 metal carport, and workshop for tools or recreational equipment. Located in a subdivision with community boat access just minutes away.

18. 2026-02-17
    listed $169,900 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Great 4BR/2BA manufactured home in Toledo Beach Subdivision, located in the growing Fairmount area. This well-kept home offers an open-concept living and dining space that flows into a spacious kitchen with center island, built-in bar, large pantry, and oversized utility room. One wing features three bedrooms, a full bath with double vanities, and a flex nook ideal for a desk or office space. The private primary suite is split from the secondary bedrooms and includes double vanities, garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet. Enjoy the wide covered front porch—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Property includes a gravel circle drive, 20x50 metal carport, and workshop for tools or recreational equipment. Located in a subdivision with community boat access just minutes away.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$959/yr (+$80/mo · 49.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $-590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemphill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,330
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5821
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hemphill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #10376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,218

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,354 people
• By 2030: 8,806 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 7,871 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 7,224 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 6,351 · -32.1%
• By 2100: 5,465 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.5) · D 10.6% · R 89.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -54.8pp · 2024: -78.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.5 2020: R+75.0 2016: R+72.8 2012: R+63.9 2008: R+54.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.26%
• Current HPI: 159.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $169,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $169,900 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+60.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,951 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.