292 Breezyway

Lawrence, NY 11559

$2,499,900C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,122 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,110
• Tax + insurance: −$2,605
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,378
• Net cashflow: $4,518/mo
• Annual: $54,215/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $699,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($54k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $2.50M).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $267k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $250k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $2.50M implies a 9515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$430k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.