292 Breezyway · Lawrence, NY 11559

$2,499,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 236 Days on market

Built 1977 0.48 ac lot $606/sqft · at area comps Est $2385k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this beautiful, romantic side-hall Colonial, where timeless elegance meets modern comfort. Genuine marble floors flow throughout, onyx bathrooms, complementing handmade fireplaces and soaring ceilings. An inviting in-ground pool and pool house, a fully finished basement create endless opportunities for entertaining and relaxing. With abundant gathering spaces and set on one of Back Lawrence’s most picturesque blocks, this exceptional residence is truly a must-see. The information has been provided by the Seller and public records and has not been verified by the Broker. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Onyx bathrooms
• Marble floors

Tags

• MARBLE FLOORS
• ONYX BATHROOMS
• HANDMADE FIREPLACES
• IN-GROUND POOL
• POOL HOUSE
• FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($54k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $267k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $250k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$430k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $2.50M implies a 9515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,199,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,385,470
• List price: $2,499,900
• Delta: 4.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Pond Xing	0.25mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,055 (-2%)	7mo	$2,535,000	$625	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $1,648,687
• Equity at exit: $2,252,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $4,627,688
• Equity at exit: $4,856,756

Cash invested: $699,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11559

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,110
• Tax from tax record: −$1,563 /mo · $18,756/yr
• Insurance: −$1,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,378
• Net cashflow: $4,518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,892

Max offer price $2,499,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $624,975
• Closing costs: $74,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Harborview W Lawrence, NY	4.0	4.5	3877	$35,000	$9.03	43d	1	0.73mi
77 Tioga Ave Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	2800	$5,800	$2.07	24d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Step into this beautiful, romantic side-hall Colonial, where timeless elegance meets modern comfort. Genuine marble floors flow throughout, onyx bathrooms, complementing handmade fireplaces and soaring ceilings. An inviting in-ground pool and pool house, a fully finished basement create endless opportunities for entertaining and relaxing. With abundant gathering spaces and set on one of Back Lawrence’s most picturesque blocks, this exceptional residence is truly a must-see. The information has been provided by the Seller and public records and has not been verified by the Broker. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

2. 2026-02-15
   price $2,499,900 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Step into this beautiful, romantic side-hall Colonial, where timeless elegance meets modern comfort. Genuine marble floors flow throughout, onyx bathrooms, complementing handmade fireplaces and soaring ceilings. An inviting in-ground pool and pool house, a fully finished basement create endless opportunities for entertaining and relaxing. With abundant gathering spaces and set on one of Back Lawrence’s most picturesque blocks, this exceptional residence is truly a must-see. The information has been provided by the Seller and public records and has not been verified by the Broker. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

3. 2025-09-18
   listed $2,950,000 Active 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Step into this beautiful, romantic side-hall Colonial, where timeless elegance meets modern comfort. Genuine marble floors flow throughout, onyx bathrooms, complementing handmade fireplaces and soaring ceilings. An inviting in-ground pool and pool house, a fully finished basement create endless opportunities for entertaining and relaxing. With abundant gathering spaces and set on one of Back Lawrence’s most picturesque blocks, this exceptional residence is truly a must-see. The information has been provided by the Seller and public records and has not been verified by the Broker. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

4. 1976-01-01
   soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $18,756 · $1,563/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $30,502 · $2,542/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,746/yr (+$979/mo · 62.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $307,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$140,033
• − Property taxes: −$18,756
• − Insurance: −$12,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,586
• − Management: −$24,586
• − Depreciation: −$72,724
• Taxable income: $14,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,394
• After-tax cash flow: $50,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #981
• US rank: #19168

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence, NY
• City population: 9,130
• Population (ZIP): 9,130

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Slovak 3% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.24%
• Current HPI: 436.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+9515.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $2,499,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listed $2,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1976-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $18,756 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.