31 Sickles Dr

Decatur, IL 62521

$147,897F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1957 · Other · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,484/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $41,411

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $148k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.