1258 Cave Creek Rd

Caneyville, KY 40119

$89,500D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $679/yr
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $817 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caneyville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 390 students, 71% FRL); Grayson County Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #143 of 217 statewide, top 67%, 839 students, 63% FRL); Grayson County High School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #118 of 254 statewide, top 47%, 1,252 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.1% in Caneyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — The siding is peeling and the paint is faded, indicating significant wear and tear.
• Major: paint — The paint is faded and peeling, indicating significant wear and tear.
• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in fair condition, but there are no visible signs of recent maintenance or repair.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in poor condition, with overgrown grass and debris scattered around the property.