1258 Cave Creek Rd · Caneyville, KY 40119

$89,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Fair condition 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a great place to get away close to Rough River Lake? This property consist of 2 lots and is located about a half block from the Cave Creek campsite entrance and Cave Creek Boat Ramp. It has a mobile home, a garage that has been used as a camp, and a camper on the property. Plenty of potential for a campsite compound.

Key facts

• Mobile home
• Camper on property
• Cave creek boat ramp

Tags

• ROUGH RIVER LAKE
• CAVE CREEK CAMPSITE ENTRANCE
• CAVE CREEK BOAT RAMP
• MOBILE HOME
• GARAGE USED AS CAMP
• CAMPER ON PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.35 acres
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style; Single-story
• Construction: Flat roof; Building area reported as 840; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms total (one primary on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Four total rooms; No basement; First-floor primary bedroom; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.1% in Caneyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caneyville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 390 students, 71% FRL); Grayson County Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #143 of 217 statewide, top 67%, 839 students, 63% FRL); Grayson County High School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #118 of 254 statewide, top 47%, 1,252 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $817 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $81,445 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Four Seasons Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0	862 (+3%)	0mo	$210,000	$244	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,772
• Equity at exit: $21,976

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $9,932
• Equity at exit: $23,394

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40119

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $88	+0% $57	+5% $26	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $23	+0% $57	+5% $90	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $79	base $57	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,500 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-03-01
    listed $89,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$820
• − Management: −$820
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable loss: −$793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$190
• After-tax cash flow: $869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including painting, repairing the siding and roof, and landscaping. The home has potential for a campsite compound, but it needs substantial work to be move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — The siding is peeling and the paint is faded, indicating significant wear and tear.
• Major paint — The paint is faded and peeling, indicating significant wear and tear.
• Major roof — The roof appears to be in fair condition, but there are no visible signs of recent maintenance or repair.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in poor condition, with overgrown grass and debris scattered around the property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both repairing the siding and roof — Repairing the siding and roof can improve the home's structural integrity and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · The siding is peeling and the paint is faded, indicating significant wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · The paint is faded and peeling, indicating significant wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears to be in fair condition, but there are no visible signs of recent maintenance or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping appears to be in poor condition, with overgrown grass and debris scattered around the property.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both repairing the siding and roof — Repairing the siding and roof can improve the home's structural integrity and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County
• NCES district ID: 2102300
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $34,256
• Composite: 27.55/100
• National rank: #6944
• State rank: #84 of 165 in KY

Livability — Caneyville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #9075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,302
• Population (ZIP): 2,071

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,840 people
• By 2030: 27,032 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 27,236 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 27,076 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,565 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 24,007 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.5% · R 80.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.91%
• Current HPI: 363.2314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $89,500 Metro Search MLS