219 Juniper Dr

Georgetown, TX 78626

$195,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$451
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-182/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (4.8% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 561 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.