219 Juniper Dr · Georgetown, TX 78626

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1997 6,098 sqft lot Est $308k · 37% under $8/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 561 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 Juniper Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-5%)	0mo	$234,500	$184	90
100 Evergreen Cir	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,367 (+2%)	7mo	$275,000	$201	83
516 Jefferson Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+4%)	5mo	$250,000	$179	83
227 Juniper Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+1%)	16mo	$309,900	$229	83
215 Crystal Knoll Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+1%)	10mo	$315,000	$232	82
530 Jefferson Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+1%)	21mo	$307,395	$227	78
202 Juniper Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+2%)	15mo	$315,000	$230	74
105 Aspen Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-4%)	16mo	$299,000	$232	73
124 Azalea Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	12mo	$299,000	$246	70
600 County Road 152	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+11%)	2mo	$399,999	$270	68
906 Jasmine Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-11%)	14mo	$240,000	$202	61
470 County Road 152	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+11%)	10mo	$400,000	$269	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,892
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-54,813
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78626

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 561
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,437/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $192,326

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Caladium Ct Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,725	$1.38	24d	1	0.19mi
1004 Drovers Cv Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,550	$1.46	14d	1	0.28mi
1036 Drovers Cv Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,625	$1.21	43d	1	0.33mi
1018 Trail Driver Cv Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,395	$1.34	3d	1	0.34mi
3001 NE Inner Loop Georgetown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,890	$1.85	2d	40	0.36mi
2601 N Austin Ave Georgetown, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1111	$2,083	$1.87	1d	43	0.47mi
190 Prairie Springs Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,845	$1.11	22d	1	0.83mi
111 Prairie Springs Cv Georgetown, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,600	$1.51	43d	1	0.84mi
450 Parkline Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.95mi
226 Claris Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$2,195	$1.84	14d	1	0.99mi
624 Parkline Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,850	$1.25	11d	1	0.99mi
415 Parkline Dr Georgetown, TX	2.0	2.5	1317	$1,900	$1.44	43d	1	1.01mi
401 Parkline DR Unit 1A Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1517	$1,950	$1.29	2d	1	1.02mi
901 Big Rocky Bnd Georgetown, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1608	$1,949	$1.21	1d	1	1.03mi
634 River Bluff Cir Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,100	$1.15	22d	1	1.11mi
634 River Bluff Cir Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,100	$1.15	24d	1	1.11mi
1012 Boons Crk Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,144	$1.49	2d	1	1.12mi
115 Stone Mountain Rd Georgetown, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1705	$2,324	$1.36	20d	1	1.14mi
110 Benchmark St Georgetown, TX	2.0	2.0	1726	$1,750	$1.01	17d	1	1.15mi
2111 N Austin Ave Georgetown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,818	$2.00	2d	20	1.15mi
408 Buckners St Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,149	$1.32	14d	1	1.17mi
501 Big Rocky Bnd Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,324	$1.43	43d	1	1.20mi
128 Saguaro Trl Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,990	$1.38	43d	1	1.25mi
108 Rio Vista Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,850	$1.15	43d	1	1.30mi
1301 NE Inner Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,170	$1.33	24d	1	1.31mi
800 E Central Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,750	$1.35	17d	1	1.49mi
1617 Northwest Blvd Apt 112 Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,274	$1.06	17d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-05
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-07-29
   listed $195,000 Active
4. 2025-05-07
   soldstatus
5. 2020-12-09
   soldstatus
6. 2000-09-01
   soldstatus
7. 2000-08-31
   soldstatus 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Restrictions: Yes

8. 2000-08-07
   historical 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Restrictions: Yes

9. 2000-07-17
   listed $99,000 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Restrictions: Yes

10. 1997-10-24
    soldstatus 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Restrictions: Yes

11. 1997-10-14
    historical 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Restrictions: Yes

12. 1997-05-12
    listed $84,546 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Restrictions: Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,437 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,437 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,437
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$814
• After-tax cash flow: $633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Georgetown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820600
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,461
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5897
• State rank: #474 of 826 in TX

Livability — Georgetown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #1294

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 128,203
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,072
• Household income: $100,431
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.77%
• Current HPI: 198.0316
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+130.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-05 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-31 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2000-08-07 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2000-07-17 Listed $99,000 Unlock MLS
• 1997-10-24 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 1997-10-14 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1997-05-12 Listed $84,546 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,437 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.