4 Andover Mohawk Rd

Lake Mohawk, NJ 07821-3533

$649,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$1,233
• HOA: −$233
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,129
• Net cashflow: $-622/mo
• Annual: $-7,468/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $539k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $538k (17.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $538k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#376 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenape Valley Regional High School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #297 of 612 in NJ (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $649k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Mohawk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.