4 Andover Mohawk Rd · Lake Mohawk, NJ 07821-3533

$649,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 4.20 ac lot $233/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 4 acres of privacy and tranquility, this move-in-ready home offers the perfect blend of peaceful surroundings and open, sun-filled living. The spacious floor plan is ideal for everyday comfort and effortless entertaining, featuring sliders to an expansive backyard that invite seamless indoor-outdoor living, along with a very spacious walkout lower level offering flexible space that could serve as a family room, guest suite, or additional bedroom. Natural light streams through every room, enhancing the home's warm and inviting feel, all within iconic Lake Mohawk, where boardwalk strolls, skiing, fishing, and boutique shopping and dining at the charming Lake Mohawk Plaza create

Key facts

• 4.2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $539k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $538k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $538k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Mohawk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#376 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenape Valley Regional High School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #297 of 612 in NJ (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $649k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $537,568 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $38,862
• Equity at exit: $291,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $194,431
• Equity at exit: $449,727

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07821-3533

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax from tax record: −$962 /mo · $11,547/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,129
• Net cashflow: $-622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,163

Max offer price $539,063

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-439	+0% $-622	+5% $-806	+10% $-990
Rent	-10% $-1,047	-5% $-835	+0% $-622	+5% $-410	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-457	base $-622	+0.5pp $-791	+1.0pp $-962

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Meadowbrook Ter Sparta, NJ	4.0	3.5	3700	$6,900	$1.86	20d	1	0.26mi
561 E Shore Trl Sparta, NJ	4.0	2.5	3478	$4,650	$1.34	19d	1	0.27mi
519 E Shore Trl Sparta, NJ	3.0	2.5	2256	$4,250	$1.88	7d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $649,000 Active
3. 2026-04-15
   historical $649,000
4. 2020-08-14
   soldstatus $385,000
5. 2020-07-27
   soldstatus $385,000 Sold
6. 2020-05-15
   historical
7. 2020-04-02
   status Active
8. 2020-01-17
   historical
9. 2019-12-13
   price $415,000
10. 2019-11-06
    listed $430,000 Active
11. 2014-05-02
    soldstatus $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,547 · $962/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,854 · $1,154/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,306/yr (+$192/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$11,547
• − Insurance: −$3,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,161
• − Management: −$5,161
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable loss: −$18,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenape Valley Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3408500
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $80,692
• Composite: 50.85/100
• National rank: #3878
• State rank: #297 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Lake Mohawk

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #12654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Mohawk, NJ

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+106.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $649,000 GSMLS
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $649,000 GSMLS
• 2020-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) $385,000 GSMLS
• 2020-05-15 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2020-04-02 Relisted — GSMLS
• 2020-01-17 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2019-12-13 Price Changed $415,000 GSMLS
• 2019-11-06 Listed $430,000 GSMLS
• 2014-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $11,547 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.