1121 Sierra Dr

Pampa, TX 79065

$55,042B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 949 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 429 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$289
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $425/mo
• Annual: $5,094/yr
• Cap rate: 15.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.06%
• DSCR: 2.47
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $15,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Travis El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 355 students, 62% FRL); Pampa J H (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 738 students, 67% FRL); Pampa H S (math 49% / reading 37%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,046 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.