1121 Sierra Dr · Pampa, TX 79065

$55,042

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 949 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 429 Days on market

Fair condition $58/sqft · 54% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, w/ big Living Room, Nice Kitchen Size, Separate Utility Room,

Key facts

• Listed 429 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 8.3% in Pampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Travis El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 355 students, 62% FRL); Pampa J H (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 738 students, 67% FRL); Pampa H S (math 49% / reading 37%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,046 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 305 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,436 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.06%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,750
• List price: $55,042
• Delta: -53.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2109 N Banks St	0.65mi	3/1.0	961 (+1%)	0mo	$45,000	$47	67
1112 W Seneca Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,081 (+14%)	1mo	$48,000	$44	62
1424 N Russell St	1.32mi	3/1.0	965 (+2%)	2mo	$65,000	$67	61
2109 N Zimmers St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+19%)	1mo	$118,000	$105	43
2100 Williston St	0.83mi	3/1.0	1,067 (+12%)	3mo	$122,500	$115	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $18,126
• Equity at exit: $8,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $50,625
• Equity at exit: $4,759

Cash invested: $15,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $119,950 ($105/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +18.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 79065

• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$289
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $463

Max offer price $55,042

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $440	+0% $425	+5% $409	+10% $393
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $385	+0% $425	+5% $464	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $439	base $425	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,760
• Closing costs: $1,651
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 N Hobart St Unit E5 Pampa, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	31d	1	0.43mi
2600 N Hobart St Pampa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	0d	2	0.43mi
2600 N Hobart St Apt E8 Pampa, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	0d	1	0.44mi
2600 N Hobart St Unit C1 Pampa, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	184d	1	0.44mi
1325 Coffee St Pampa, TX	2.0	1.0	677	$2,400	$3.55	2d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,042 Active 429 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,042 Active 427 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,042 Active 426 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,042 Active 425 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,042 Active 424 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,042 Active 423 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,042 Active 422 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,042 Active 421 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,042 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,042 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,042 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,042 Active 412 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,042 Active 411 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,042 Active 410 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,042 Active 409 DOM
16. 2025-04-14
    listed $55,042 Active 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    3 Bedroom, w/ big Living Room, Nice Kitchen Size, Separate Utility Room,

17. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus
18. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 55.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,083
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,601
• Taxable income: $4,474
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,074
• After-tax cash flow: $4,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $23,725–$42,705 screening

The home has fair exterior condition with some landscaping and exterior paint issues. Moderate rehabilitation is needed to improve its appearance and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,000–$8,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the windows.
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the electrical components.
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the exterior.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Sparse grass and weeds
• Moderate Exterior paint — Light blue siding with some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and overall appearance ↑
• Both Interior updates — Enhances the home's livability and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Travis El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Pampa J H F TX #997/1,662 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Pampa H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pampa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834170
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,741
• Composite: 31.43/100
• National rank: #5986
• State rank: #482 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Pampa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #3885

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pampa, TX
• County: Gray · 24,965 people
• Population (ZIP): 19,569
• Household income: $55,940
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Gray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,965 people
• By 2030: 26,105 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 28,752 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 31,859 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 39,812 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 43,284 · +73.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Gray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.2% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -71.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.2 2016: R+78.8 2012: R+75.2 2008: R+71.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.67%
• Current HPI: 128.8525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-14 Listed $55,042 PBOR
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.