3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
906 sqft ·
Built 1916
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 55 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,379/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,620
Tax + insurance
−$793
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$500
Net cashflow
$-535/mo
Annual
$-6,417/yr
Cap rate
4.43%
Cash-on-cash
-6.65%
DSCR
0.70
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$86,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-535 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (30.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (23.0% below list).
It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $215k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#335 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
Highland Falls Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #328 of 590 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Fort Montgomery Elementary School (201 students, 52% FRL); Highland Falls Intermediate School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 324 students, 56% FRL); James I O'Neill High School (math 87% / reading 70%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 424 students, 30% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $76k; list at $309k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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