411 Kelso Dr #18

Millcreek, PA 16505

$23,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,406/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$123
• Tax + insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$696
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $252/mo
• Annual: $3,024/yr
• Cap rate: 19.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.96%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 5.98%
• Cash to close: $6,580

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $24k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $162 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $705 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.