411 Kelso Dr #18 · Erie, PA 16505

$23,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 1986 $24/sqft · 87% below area $696/mo HOA · 50% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 2 bath home in a convenient location near Presque Isle, local shops & restaurants! Step into a nice sized mud room before entering the main living areas that offers the perfect drop zone for coats, shoes, backpacks and more! The living room is roomy, yet still warm & inviting, w/ soft neutral carpeting & filled with natural light. The bright kitchen offers white cabinetry, a gas range, refrigerator, cozy dining area/nook, & a separate pantry/laundry area that includes the washer/dryer. The primary BR suite offers ample space for a large sized bed, nice closet & its own adjoining bath for privacy that keeps it separate from the other living areas of the home. One additional bedroom & full bath are on the opposite end of the home. Updates include a new hot water tank 2022, new heat exchange 2023, & new refrigerator 2022. The storage shed is perfect for all of the extras! This one is great for downsizing or anyone looking for a simplified lifestyle without sacrificing​​‌​​​​‌​‌​​​​‌​​‌​​​​‌‌ space!

Key facts

• Separate pantry
• Natural light
• Storage shed

Tags

• MUD ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WHITE CABINETRY
• GAS RANGE
• SEPARATE PANTRY
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $162 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $705 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 50% of rent.

Recommended offer $20,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.96%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,791
• List price: $23,500
• Delta: -86.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3139 Whitehouse Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,071 (+9%)	10mo	$189,900	$177	70
911 Michigan Blvd	0.36mi	2/1.0	936 (-4%)	14mo	$200,000	$214	61
101 Kelso Dr E	0.25mi	2/1.0	882 (-10%)	10mo	$125,000	$142	59
3130 Sunnylane Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	844 (-14%)	10mo	$235,000	$278	59
3024 Haas Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	24mo	$132,100	$135	56
3034 W 11th St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+3%)	14mo	$210,000	$208	56
301 Blackstone Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	928 (-5%)	7mo	$194,000	$209	54
1315 Oregon Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	3mo	$202,000	$210	53
3227 W 13th St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,019 (+4%)	11mo	$195,000	$191	45
3263 W 12th St	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+5%)	23mo	$129,500	$125	42
3024 W 11th St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	881 (-10%)	20mo	$110,000	$125	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $12,692
• Equity at exit: $3,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $33,544
• Equity at exit: $2,032

Cash invested: $6,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$123
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$29 /mo · $352/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$696
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $23,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $260	+0% $252	+5% $244	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $196	+0% $252	+5% $308	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $258	base $252	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,875
• Closing costs: $705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3257 Lake Front Dr Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	880	$2,000	$2.27	45d	1	0.32mi
509 Beachgrove Dr Apt 4 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	0.52mi
3063 W 11th St Apt 30 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	650	$925	$1.42	45d	1	0.54mi
2540 W 8th St Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	550	$1,711	$3.11	45d	1	0.95mi
3738 W 12th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,180	$1.28	45d	1	0.96mi
4060 Chilton Ct Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,400	$1.82	45d	1	1.30mi
1428 Fairfax Ave Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	560	$895	$1.60	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $696 · $8,352/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $23,500 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $23,500 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $23,500 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $23,500 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $23,500 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $23,500 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $23,500 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $23,500 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $23,500 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $23,500 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $23,500 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $23,500 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $23,500 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $23,500 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $23,500 Active 185 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $23,500 Active 184 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $23,500 Active 183 DOM
18. 2026-04-12
    price $23,500 1099-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath home in a convenient location near Presque Isle, local shops & restaurants! Step into a nice sized mud room before entering the main living areas that offers the perfect drop zone for coats, shoes, backpacks and more! The living room is roomy, yet still warm & inviting, w/ soft neutral carpeting & filled with natural light. The bright kitchen offers white cabinetry, a gas range, refrigerator, cozy dining area/nook, & a separate pantry/laundry area that includes the washer/dryer. The primary BR suite offers ample space for a large sized bed, nice closet & its own adjoining bath for privacy that keeps it separate from the other living areas of the home. One additional bedroom & full bath are on the opposite end of the home. Updates include a new hot water tank 2022, new heat exchange 2023, & new refrigerator 2022. The storage shed is perfect for all of the extras! This one is great for downsizing or anyone looking for a simplified lifestyle without sacrificing​​‌​​​​‌​‌​​​​‌​​‌​​​​‌‌ space!

19. 2026-02-20
    price $25,500 1099-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath home in a convenient location near Presque Isle, local shops & restaurants! Step into a nice sized mud room before entering the main living areas that offers the perfect drop zone for coats, shoes, backpacks and more! The living room is roomy, yet still warm & inviting, w/ soft neutral carpeting & filled with natural light. The bright kitchen offers white cabinetry, a gas range, refrigerator, cozy dining area/nook, & a separate pantry/laundry area that includes the washer/dryer. The primary BR suite offers ample space for a large sized bed, nice closet & its own adjoining bath for privacy that keeps it separate from the other living areas of the home. One additional bedroom & full bath are on the opposite end of the home. Updates include a new hot water tank 2022, new heat exchange 2023, & new refrigerator 2022. The storage shed is perfect for all of the extras! This one is great for downsizing or anyone looking for a simplified lifestyle without sacrificing​​‌​​​​‌​‌​​​​‌​​‌​​​​‌‌ space!

20. 2025-11-28
    listed $29,500 Active 1099-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

    2 bedroom, 2 bath home in a convenient location near Presque Isle, local shops & restaurants! Step into a nice sized mud room before entering the main living areas that offers the perfect drop zone for coats, shoes, backpacks and more! The living room is roomy, yet still warm & inviting, w/ soft neutral carpeting & filled with natural light. The bright kitchen offers white cabinetry, a gas range, refrigerator, cozy dining area/nook, & a separate pantry/laundry area that includes the washer/dryer. The primary BR suite offers ample space for a large sized bed, nice closet & its own adjoining bath for privacy that keeps it separate from the other living areas of the home. One additional bedroom & full bath are on the opposite end of the home. Updates include a new hot water tank 2022, new heat exchange 2023, & new refrigerator 2022. The storage shed is perfect for all of the extras! This one is great for downsizing or anyone looking for a simplified lifestyle without sacrificing​​‌​​​​‌​‌​​​​‌​​‌​​​​‌‌ space!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,316
• − Property taxes: −$352
• − Insurance: −$118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − HOA: −$8,352
• − Depreciation: −$684
• Taxable income: $3,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$803
• After-tax cash flow: $2,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $23,500 GEBOR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $25,500 GEBOR
• 2025-11-28 Listed $29,500 GEBOR