17860 Deer Hl

Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95467

$359,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,933 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$324
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-331/mo
• Annual: $-3,968/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $100,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $497 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coyote Valley Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 462 students, 43% FRL); Middletown Middle (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #170 of 498 statewide, top 35%, 232 students, 54% FRL); Middletown High (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #942 of 1,170 statewide, top 81%, 420 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.