17860 Deer Hl · Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95467

$359,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,933 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1994 0.29 ac lot $186/sqft · 9% below area Est $396k · 9% under $324/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Opportunity! Priced to sell with needed repairs reflected in price. This diamond in the rough, spacious and inviting, 1,933 sq ft home offers comfort, functionality, and beautiful views! With a little TLC this gem will see it's full potential! Featuring 3 generously sized bedrooms, an open and spacious kitchen perfect for the baker or chef in the family, large center island, tiled countertops, breakfast bar seating, and a dining areaall flowing seamlessly into the expansive living room with cozy fireplace, deck access, and beautiful valley and mountain views. Step outside to the large back deck with hot tub, creating the perfect setting to relax and unwind while enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The fenced backyard offers privacy and tranquility with plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Additional highlights include an inside laundry room, oversized 3-car garage with ample storage space, a generator included for added convenience and peace of mind, roof sprinklers and new HVAC with Ecobee remote access. Some repair items include back deck, primary bathroom shower and floor, exterior paint. Located in the beautiful gated community of Hidden Valley Lake, just 25 minutes from Calistoga. Residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a private lake for swimming, fishing, and boating, an 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, community pool, beaches, tennis courts, parks, dog parks, walking trails, and moreall nestled just north of Napa Valley wine country.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Cozy fireplace
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• TILED COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private paved road frontage; Directions: Hwy 29 to Spruce Grove Road to Deer Hill; Living area and year-built sourced from public records; No accessory dwelling unit
• Financial info: Special assessments reported
• HOA & community: Part of Hidden Valley Lake Association; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include hiking trails, playground, dock, tennis, pier, golf, pool, fire pit, meeting room, dog park, barbecue, club house, jogging track, banquet facilities, outdoor cooking area, picnic area and biking trails; Community features include foothills, watersports, golf course, hiking, fishing, riding/stables, mountainous terrain, lake access, biking, park and dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with three garage spaces and three garage doors; Direct garage access; Front-entry garage; Garage door opener; Driveway parking; Total of 8 parking spaces (including 5 uncovered spaces)
• Security: Gated community; Fire sprinklers; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Propane available; Electricity connected (standard service); 220V outlet in garage; Cable available
• Home design: House; One story; Entry at main level; Public records indicate a view; Property requires cosmetic repairs
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Chain link fencing
• Exterior features: Front porch; Wood deck; Rain gutters; Sprinkler system; Landscaped yard with trees; Front yard and back yard; No pool; Has patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Electric oven; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Breakfast counter/bar; Kitchen open to family room; Kitchenette; Family kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub; Jetted tub; Walk-in shower; Shower; Tile counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating; Fireplace heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Bar; Ceiling fan; Living room deck attached; Tile counters; Blinds; Fireplace located in the living room; Fire sprinklers, carbon monoxide detector and smoke detector; Gated community; One-level layout; Spa on the property (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; 220V in laundry; Propane water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coyote Valley Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 462 students, 43% FRL); Middletown Middle (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #170 of 498 statewide, top 35%, 232 students, 54% FRL); Middletown High (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #942 of 1,170 statewide, top 81%, 420 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $497 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,485 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,390
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -9.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18168 Deer Hill Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+3%)	2mo	$365,000	$184	84
18238 Deer Hill Rd	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,901 (-2%)	11mo	$470,000	$247	73
18222 Tigerwood Ct	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (+3%)	6mo	$538,000	$271	72
17832 Deer Hill Rd	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,798 (-7%)	10mo	$220,000	$122	72
18701 Glenwood	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,025 (+5%)	4mo	$425,000	$210	63
18544 Deer Hill Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,775 (-8%)	10mo	$420,000	$237	58
15632 Little Peak Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,813 (-6%)	1mo	$400,000	$221	57
16818 Hawks Hill Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	9mo	$399,000	$238	52
17464 Greenridge Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,739 (-10%)	7mo	$325,000	$187	51
18483 Kentwood Pl	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,717 (-11%)	16mo	$354,900	$207	48
18831 Coyle Springs Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-4%)	14mo	$345,000	$187	46
16744 Buckhorn	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-14%)	6mo	$270,000	$162	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-29,022
• Equity at exit: $106,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,601
• Equity at exit: $130,620

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95467

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,986/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$324
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,515

Max offer price $301,485

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-127	-5% $-229	+0% $-331	+5% $-433	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-453	+0% $-331	+5% $-208	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-239	base $-331	+0.5pp $-424	+1.0pp $-519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17860 Deer Hill Rd Hidden Valley Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1933	$3,500	$1.81	46d	1	0.03mi
16506 Ridgecrest Ct Hidden Valley Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,300	$1.57	23d	1	0.19mi
19141 Ravenhill Rd Hidden Valley Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,300	$1.32	23d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $324 · $3,888/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $359,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $359,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $359,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $385,000 Active 33 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    Huge Opportunity! Priced to sell with needed repairs reflected in price. This diamond in the rough, spacious and inviting, 1,933 sq ft home offers comfort, functionality, and beautiful views! With a little TLC this gem will see it's full potential! Featuring 3 generously sized bedrooms, an open and spacious kitchen perfect for the baker or chef in the family, large center island, tiled countertops, breakfast bar seating, and a dining areaall flowing seamlessly into the expansive living room with cozy fireplace, deck access, and beautiful valley and mountain views. Step outside to the large back deck with hot tub, creating the perfect setting to relax and unwind while enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The fenced backyard offers privacy and tranquility with plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Additional highlights include an inside laundry room, oversized 3-car garage with ample storage space, a generator included for added convenience and peace of mind, roof sprinklers and new HVAC with Ecobee remote access. Some repair items include back deck, primary bathroom shower and floor, exterior paint. Located in the beautiful gated community of Hidden Valley Lake, just 25 minutes from Calistoga. Residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a private lake for swimming, fishing, and boating, an 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, community pool, beaches, tennis courts, parks, dog parks, walking trails, and moreall nestled just north of Napa Valley wine country.

11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $385,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $385,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $385,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $385,000 Active 22 DOM
20. 2026-05-08
    listed $399,900 Active 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    Huge Opportunity! Priced to sell with needed repairs reflected in price. This diamond in the rough, spacious and inviting, 1,933 sq ft home offers comfort, functionality, and beautiful views! With a little TLC this gem will see it's full potential! Featuring 3 generously sized bedrooms, an open and spacious kitchen perfect for the baker or chef in the family, large center island, tiled countertops, breakfast bar seating, and a dining areaall flowing seamlessly into the expansive living room with cozy fireplace, deck access, and beautiful valley and mountain views. Step outside to the large back deck with hot tub, creating the perfect setting to relax and unwind while enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The fenced backyard offers privacy and tranquility with plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Additional highlights include an inside laundry room, oversized 3-car garage with ample storage space, a generator included for added convenience and peace of mind, roof sprinklers and new HVAC with Ecobee remote access. Some repair items include back deck, primary bathroom shower and floor, exterior paint. Located in the beautiful gated community of Hidden Valley Lake, just 25 minutes from Calistoga. Residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a private lake for swimming, fishing, and boating, an 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, community pool, beaches, tennis courts, parks, dog parks, walking trails, and moreall nestled just north of Napa Valley wine country.

21. 2026-05-08
    listed $399,900 Active 1285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    Huge Opportunity! Priced to sell with needed repairs reflected in price. This diamond in the rough, spacious and inviting, 1,933 sq ft home offers comfort, functionality, and beautiful views! With a little TLC this gem will see it's full potential! Featuring 3 generously sized bedrooms, an open and spacious kitchen perfect for the baker or chef in the family, large center island, tiled countertops, breakfast bar seating, and a dining areaall flowing seamlessly into the expansive living room with cozy fireplace, deck access, and beautiful valley and mountain views. Step outside to the large back deck with hot tub, creating the perfect setting to relax and unwind while enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The fenced backyard offers privacy and tranquility with plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Additional highlights include an inside laundry room, oversized 3-car garage with ample storage space, a generator included for added convenience and peace of mind, roof sprinklers and new HVAC with Ecobee remote access. Some repair items include back deck, primary bathroom shower and floor, exterior paint. Located in the beautiful gated community of Hidden Valley Lake, just 25 minutes from Calistoga. Residents enjoy exceptional amenities including a private lake for swimming, fishing, and boating, an 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, community pool, beaches, tennis courts, parks, dog parks, walking trails, and moreall nestled just north of Napa Valley wine country.

22. 2025-09-16
    listed $3,500
23. 2007-08-10
    soldstatus $322,900

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    WHAT A DEAL! Large 3bed/2ba, 1933 sq. ft. home with 3 car garage sits on a large landscaped lot and features beautiful mountain & valley views. The oversized and open kitchen leads out to a large deck to enjoy the views. The 3 car garage offers plenty of parking for a boat or other water toys! Buy now and receive a $2500 Buyer incentive. Call for details!

24. 2007-02-24
    listed $322,900

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    WHAT A DEAL! Large 3bed/2ba, 1933 sq. ft. home with 3 car garage sits on a large landscaped lot and features beautiful mountain & valley views. The oversized and open kitchen leads out to a large deck to enjoy the views. The 3 car garage offers plenty of parking for a boat or other water toys! Buy now and receive a $2500 Buyer incentive. Call for details!

25. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus $390,000
26. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus $390,000
27. 2005-06-27
    listed $384,900
28. 1994-10-21
    soldstatus $145,000
29. 1994-01-14
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,986 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,986 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$4,986
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,972
• − Management: −$2,972
• − HOA: −$3,888
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$10,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,422
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hidden Valley Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #22539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidden Valley Lake, CA
• City population: 5,721
• Population (ZIP): 5,721

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 191.4165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2779.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $359,900 CRMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $359,900 BAREIS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $385,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $385,000 BAREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $399,900 BAREIS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $399,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed for Rent $3,500 REDFIN
• 2007-08-10 Sold (MLS) $322,900 CRMLS
• 2007-02-24 Listed $322,900 CRMLS
• 2005-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-01 Sold (MLS) $390,000 CRMLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $384,900 CRMLS
• 1994-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,986 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.