316 Howard St

Bay City, MI 48708

$134,500D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1914 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-644/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $37,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-644/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 395 students, 93% FRL); Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 44% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $134k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?